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International oil giants are losing money, and domestic oil companies' fundamentals continue to improve

Thecrudeoilmarketinthefirsthalfof2020canbedescribedasthrilling.Thesharpdropincrudeoilpriceshasbecomearare"historicalevent"indecades.Coupledwiththeimpactoftheepidemic,theoilgiantshavehadahardtime.　　Recently,manymultinationaloilcompanieshavereleasedsemi-annualreports.Inadditiontothe“globaloilcompanyboss”SaudiAramco,thesixmajoroilgiantssuchasShell,BP,ExxonMobil,Total,ChevronandConocoPhillipshaveallsufferedhugelosses..Amongthem,BPandShellweretheworst,withlossesof21.213billionUSdollarsand18.155billionUSdollarsrespectively.　　Incomparison,duetotheearliereffectivecontrolofthedomesticepidemic,theresumptionofproductioninvariousindustrieshasenteredthefastlane,andoilcompanieshaveperformedbetterthaninternationaloilcompaniesinallaspects.mycountry'spetroleumandpetrochemicalcompanieshaveachievedpositivenetprofitgrowthinJune.　　"TherapidrecoveryofChina'sinternalpetrochemicalproductdemandandthedeclineinexternalrawmaterialcostshavesupportedtheperformanceofdomesticoilcompanies,andtheoperatingperformanceofdomesticoilcompaniesismuchbetterthanthatofoverseasoilcompanies."ZhongyuInformationanalystZhangYonghaotolda"SecuritiesDaily"reporter.　　Thecrudeoilmarketispickingup　　OnAugust19,theOPEC+PetroleumMinisterialMeetingwasheld.Themarketisexpectedtoreducetherateofproductioncuts,fromadailyreductionof9.7millionbarrelsto7.7millionbarrels.Atthesametime,thenumberofactivedrillingwellsintheUnitedStateshasdecreasedfor15consecutiveweeks,anditisexpectedthatUSshaleoilproductionwillcontinuetodecline.　　Infact,sinceJuly,theOPEC+productionreductionagreementimplementationratehasbeenaround97%,andoil-producingcountrieshavebeencuttingproductiontocontrolsupplyandreduceglobalinventories.　　JinlianchuangcrudeoilsenioranalystXiJiaruitoldtheSecuritiesDailyreporterthatinthefirsthalfoftheyear,theperformanceofthecrudeoilmarketundertheepidemicsituationwasextremelynegative.However,afterenteringthesecondhalfoftheyear,asthefundamentalseased,theglobalcrudeoilmarketgraduallyusheredinaroundofrecovery,andcrudeoilpriceswillalso"rising."　　Forthecrudeoilmarket,therearetwouncertainfactorsthatstillplaguethetrendofoilprices.Oneistherecoveryoftheglobalepidemic,andtheotheristheimplementationofproductioncutsinoil-producingcountries.　　InXiJiarui'sview,globalanti-epidemicprogresshasbeenmadeinstages,countriescontinuetoloosenthe"blockade",andimportanteconomicstimulusplanswillbefollowedup.Underthispremise,globalcrudeoildemandisexpectedtoincreasesteadily,supportingcrudeoilprices.Atthesametime,oil-producingcountriesareexpectedtocontinuetomaintaintheeffectivenessofproductioncuts.Aftermakingupfortheshareofproductioncuts,OPEC+willadjustthescaleofproductioncutstomaintainoilpricesbacktoarelativelyreasonableoperatingrangebasedonthesupplyanddemandofthecrudeoilmarket.　　ItisworthmentioningthatUScrudeoilproductionmayfurtherdecline.LowoilpriceshaveimpactedtheUSshaleoilindustrychain.ThebankruptcyofoilcompaniesandtheshutdownofoilwellsmakeitdifficultfortheUSoilindustrytorecoverintheshortterm.Thetotalglobalcrudeoilsupplywillcontinuetoshrinkinthesecondhalfoftheyear,sooilpricesareexpectedtoreboundfurther.　　AccordingtoEIAforecastdata,theglobalcrudeoilmarketwillreappearasupplygapinthesecondhalfof2020,anddemandgrowthsurpassingsupplygrowthisthemainreasonforthegap;thecrudeoilsupplygapinthethirdquarterwillgraduallyincrease,andthefourthquarterwillbemoderateShrinking,theaveragesupplygapinthesecondhalfoftheyearisabout3.13millionbarrelsperday.Basedonthis,internationaloilpricesinthesecondhalfoftheyearwillshowageneraltrendofmoderatelyfallingafterrising.　　XiJiaruibelievesthatalthoughthesecondhalfoftheyearisstillfullofmanyuncertainties,theoverallsituationofthecrudeoilmarketwillpickupcomparedwiththefirsthalfoftheyear.ItisexpectedthatthemainstreamoperatingrangeofWTIandBrentwillbe35USdollars/barrelinthesecondhalfoftheyear.To55USdollars/barreland38USdollars/barrelto60USdollars/barrel.　　TheZhongyuInformationCrudeOilResearchGroupjudgedthatoilpriceswillshowasteppedupwardtrendinthesecondhalfoftheyear,butthepriceceilingwillnotbetoohigh.ItisjudgedthattheabsolutepriceofBrentcrudeoilfutureswillbebelow55USdollarsperbarrel,andtheabsolutepriceofWTIcrudeoilfutureswillbe50NeartheUSdollar/barrel,Brent’s2020annualaveragevaluemaybeintherangeofUS$45/barreltoUS$49/barrel.　　Themostdifficultperiodforoilcompanieshaspassed　　InMarchthisyear,thesharpdropincrudeoilpricesmadethemarket"witnesshistory"again.Atthattime,OPEC'sproductioncutnegotiationscollapsed,andSaudiArabiatooktheleadinlaunchinganoil"pricewar",superimposingthenegativeimpactofdemandcausedbythespreadofthenewcrownpneumoniaepidemicaroundtheworld,oilpricesfellrapidly,andBrentoilpricesfellbelow$20.　　Thesharpdropininternationaloilpricesandtheimpactoftheepidemichavecausedtheoilgiantstocryinthefirsthalfofthisyear.　　Asofnow,thesixmajorinternationaloilgiantshaveallannouncedtheirsecond-quarterfinancialreports.Accordingtostatistics,thetotallossesofthesesixmultinationaloilcompaniesinthesecondquarteramountedto53.693billionU.S.dollars(about374.8billionyuan),andthetotallossinthefirsthalfoftheyearwas54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Time of issue:2019-12-04 00:00:00

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