The crude oil market in the first half of 2020 can be described as thrilling. The sharp drop in crude oil prices has become a rare "historical event" in decades. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the oil giants have had a hard time.

　　Recently, many multinational oil companies have released semi-annual reports. In addition to the “global oil company boss” Saudi Aramco, the six major oil giants such as Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil, Total, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have all suffered huge losses. . Among them, BP and Shell were the worst, with losses of 21.213 billion US dollars and 18.155 billion US dollars respectively.

　　In comparison, due to the earlier effective control of the domestic epidemic, the resumption of production in various industries has entered the fast lane, and oil companies have performed better than international oil companies in all aspects. my country's petroleum and petrochemical companies have achieved positive net profit growth in June.

　　 "The rapid recovery of China's internal petrochemical product demand and the decline in external raw material costs have supported the performance of domestic oil companies, and the operating performance of domestic oil companies is much better than that of overseas oil companies." Zhongyu Information analyst Zhang Yonghao told a "Securities Daily" reporter.

　　 The crude oil market is picking up

　　 On August 19, the OPEC+ Petroleum Ministerial Meeting was held. The market is expected to reduce the rate of production cuts, from a daily reduction of 9.7 million barrels to 7.7 million barrels. At the same time, the number of active drilling wells in the United States has decreased for 15 consecutive weeks, and it is expected that US shale oil production will continue to decline.

　　In fact, since July, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement implementation rate has been around 97%, and oil-producing countries have been cutting production to control supply and reduce global inventories.

　　Jinlianchuang crude oil senior analyst Xi Jiarui told the Securities Daily reporter that in the first half of the year, the performance of the crude oil market under the epidemic situation was extremely negative. However, after entering the second half of the year, as the fundamentals eased, the global crude oil market gradually ushered in a round of recovery, and crude oil prices will also "rising."

　　For the crude oil market, there are two uncertain factors that still plague the trend of oil prices. One is the recovery of the global epidemic, and the other is the implementation of production cuts in oil-producing countries.

　　In Xi Jiarui's view, global anti-epidemic progress has been made in stages, countries continue to loosen the "blockade", and important economic stimulus plans will be followed up. Under this premise, global crude oil demand is expected to increase steadily, supporting crude oil prices. At the same time, oil-producing countries are expected to continue to maintain the effectiveness of production cuts. After making up for the share of production cuts, OPEC+ will adjust the scale of production cuts to maintain oil prices back to a relatively reasonable operating range based on the supply and demand of the crude oil market.

　　It is worth mentioning that US crude oil production may further decline. Low oil prices have impacted the US shale oil industry chain. The bankruptcy of oil companies and the shutdown of oil wells make it difficult for the US oil industry to recover in the short term. The total global crude oil supply will continue to shrink in the second half of the year, so oil prices are expected to rebound further.

　　According to EIA forecast data, the global crude oil market will reappear a supply gap in the second half of 2020, and demand growth surpassing supply growth is the main reason for the gap; the crude oil supply gap in the third quarter will gradually increase, and the fourth quarter will be moderate Shrinking, the average supply gap in the second half of the year is about 3.13 million barrels per day. Based on this, international oil prices in the second half of the year will show a general trend of moderately falling after rising.

　　Xi Jiarui believes that although the second half of the year is still full of many uncertainties, the overall situation of the crude oil market will pick up compared with the first half of the year. It is expected that the mainstream operating range of WTI and Brent will be 35 US dollars/barrel in the second half of the year. To 55 US dollars / barrel and 38 US dollars / barrel to 60 US dollars / barrel.

　　The Zhongyu Information Crude Oil Research Group judged that oil prices will show a stepped upward trend in the second half of the year, but the price ceiling will not be too high. It is judged that the absolute price of Brent crude oil futures will be below 55 US dollars per barrel, and the absolute price of WTI crude oil futures will be 50 Near the US dollar/barrel, Brent’s 2020 annual average value may be in the range of US$45/barrel to US$49/barrel.

　　The most difficult period for oil companies has passed

　　In March this year, the sharp drop in crude oil prices made the market "witness history" again. At that time, OPEC's production cut negotiations collapsed, and Saudi Arabia took the lead in launching an oil "price war", superimposing the negative impact of demand caused by the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic around the world, oil prices fell rapidly, and Brent oil prices fell below $20.

　　The sharp drop in international oil prices and the impact of the epidemic have caused the oil giants to cry in the first half of this year.

　　As of now, the six major international oil giants have all announced their second-quarter financial reports. According to statistics, the total losses of these six multinational oil companies in the second quarter amounted to 53.693 billion U.S. dollars (about 374.8 billion yuan), and the total loss in the first half of the year was 54.572 billion U.S. dollars (about 380.972 billion yuan).

　　Zhang Yonghao believes that the main reason for the loss of international oil companies is the collapse in demand caused by the new crown epidemic, which has led to a sharp drop in the consumption of petroleum refined products.

　　But recently, the “global oil company leader” Saudi Aramco has given the market a certain degree of confidence. Its earnings report for the first half of 2020 showed that it achieved a net profit of approximately US$23.2 billion in the first half of this year, down 50.5% from US$46.9 billion in the same period last year.

　　Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said: "Global oil demand is recovering, and the worst is over. We are still quite optimistic about the long-term demand for oil."

　　Sinopec also stated in its quarterly report that it is gradually moving out of the most difficult period.

　　In fact, since the second half of the year, the gradual improvement in the crude oil market has also confirmed the above statement.

　　For domestic oil companies, especially the three barrels of oil, after experiencing the last round of sharp decline in oil prices, they have been quite effective in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. With the recovery of the crude oil market, oil companies ushered in a positive outlook.

　　According to the economic performance of central enterprises in the first half of 2020 released by the State Council Information Office, the net profit of petroleum and petrochemical enterprises in June increased by 7.90% year-on-year, and the monthly profit during the year achieved positive growth for the first time.

　　Sinopec recently stated on the investor platform that low oil prices will bring greater challenges to upstream businesses. For downstream businesses, the low oil price environment will promote refined oil consumption and help refining achieve stable and better gross profit. At the same time, low oil prices will also effectively reduce the cost of chemical raw materials and enhance the competitiveness of naphtha chemicals. In 2020, the company will give full play to the advantages of integration, vigorously reduce costs and expenses, strive to cultivate new growth points, and actively respond to the difficulties and challenges brought about by low oil prices.

　　According to a research report by Everbright Securities, under the pessimistic scenario, due to the integration of refining and marketing, Sinopec’s advantages in the sales link will make the decline in refining profitability have less impact on its overall performance. In the long run, the company’s profitability and return on investment will remain unchanged. Quite impressive. (Securities Daily reporter Li Chunlian)